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Last Friday, we saw EUR/GBP testing a long term trend line resistance that dated back to the highs of December 2008 (click here to see). The pair has since moved lower after being rejected from the trend line and looks to have found a near term pivot in the area of its 23.6% Fibonacci level (of the rally from January lows to March highs). This retracement area also comes in roughly around where the highs of December 2010 and January 2011 are and can be seen on the chart below in yellow highlight. While this pivot remains the key technical level to the downside, it can also be seen that the daily RSI indicator has broken a rising support line which suggests potential weakness in the price action of the pair. Moreover, the long term falling resistance line converges with a medium term upwards parallel channel resistance as an added level of resistance. While the pair remains under the trend line resistance levels which it faces, we favor a bearish bias but would note that a ...

EUR/USD Forms Head and Shoulder with 1.4140 Neckline Short-term Following up with yesterday's updates, the EUR/USD indeed is declining further after the bearish divergence.The market has reached the important 1.4140-1.4150 support. The market developed a head and shoulder and the 1.4140 level is the neckline. If we break it we might extend the current towards 1.4050-1.4060 level. The 4H chart also shows the head and shoulder and the 50% retracement target in the 1.4050-1.4060 zone. Other clues for the bearish outlook in the short-term is the bearish divergence, although it has already been resolved. Still, the RSI continues to decline and a failure to cross its 3-period moving average suggests bearish continuation. Candlestick action also reflects bearish continuation as the bears look more dominant since the market reached 1.4250. The current decline should not break below 1.40 area as wave 4 should not overlap wave 1. If it does, the bullish scenario is put ...

Dollar-Swiss fell during the day as expected and is keeping our bearish sentiment intact. Although it has bounced back from the day's low of 0.8978 it is not showing much upside momentum. Also it has very strong immediate Resistance in 0.9930-40 region, a break above which is not looking likely now. We expect the pair to dip further towards 0.8950-00 in the coming sessions. However, a strong break above 0.9340 might take it up towards 0.9070-9100.

Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY USD/JPY 80.95 USD/JPY Open 81.03 High 81.28 Low 80.80 Close 80.93 On Tuesday Dollar/Yen decreased insignificantly with less than 50 pips, not exactly matching the very negative Interbank sentiment at bellow -76%. The currency couple depreciated from 81.28 to 80.83 yesterday, closing the day at 80.93. This morning the Dollar weakened slightly further down to 80.80 against the Yen. On the 1 hour chart the downward trading has moved into a range, while on the 3 hour chart wide range trading has also formed. Break above yesterday's top and nearest resistance 81.28 would encourage further recovery of the Dollar. Immediate support is today's bottom at 80.80, and consistent break bellow it could strengthen the Yen further down towards next target 79.86. Today is Japan Trade balance at 23:50 GMT. Quotes are moving in line with the even 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating neutral market. The value of the RSI indicator is thinly n...

GBP/USD Slides to Test Key Pivot at 1.6170; 1.60 is Next Short-term The GBP/USD indeed completed what was wave 3, and should be on wave 4 now. Corrective waves are anticipated as 3-wave patterns, but the current decline with such a strong decline right now, could be still part of the first corrective wave, after which we can expect an upswing and another corrective wave down. It is still a little early to say. This anticipation is only preferred because of the sharp decline in the European session. If the market is brought back up above 1.6350 in the US session, then we likely have bullish continuation to 1.6450-1.65 to finish wave 5. However, if the market declines below 1.6170, the bullish wave count is invalid, and we have to consider a significant decline back towards the 1.60-1.5980 lows of the recent range.

AUDUSD: Risk Still Remains Higher AUDUSD: Outlook for AUDUSD to strengthen further remains intact for a run at the 1.0155/1.0201 levels. If this occurs, price extension should follow towards its 2010 high at 1.0253 and possibly higher towards the 1.0300 and 1.0400 levels. Its daily stochastic has turned higher supporting this view. Alternatively, the risk to our analysis will be a break and hold below the 0.9702 level, its Mar 16'2011 low. This will trigger further declines towards the 0.9672 level, its daily 200 ema and next the 0.9536 level, its Dec 01'2010 low. All in all, the pair continues to look for a return above its major resistance at the 1.0253 level.

Currency Markets Await Portugal Vote Currency Markets Await Portugal Vote Price action for the EUR/USD is currently trading within a tight 17 pip range over the past hour. Key intra-day support remains at the 1.4100 level for the currency pair. If the budget does not get the necessary votes and Portugal's Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigns, further weakness could target the 1.4053 level. If we see a continuation in bearishness, dynamic support from the February 14th, 2011 trend line will reside at the 1.3950 region and the 38.2% retracement of the February 14th low to March 22nd high move. If the markets are surprised with positive news out of Portugal and the euro experiences a bullish rally, potential targets include a retest of the 1.4247 level with further upside at 1.4338.

Afternoon Forex Overview Afternoon Forex Overview Previous session overview European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled the ECB is likely to increase interest rates as soon as next month, saying he has "nothing to add" from the ECB's policy statement March 3, when the central bank warned that "strong vigilance" was needed on inflation. Economists interpreted the "strong vigilance" language, and Trichet's subsequent comment, that a rate increase was "possible" at the ECB's April 7 meeting, as an indication that a rise in its main policy rate was likely unless something altered the officials' views. Other ECB officials echoed Trichet's remarks Monday, suggesting the ECB will likely increase rates for the first time since July 2008 amid signs that inflation will accelerate further. The U.S. dollar strengthened modestly against the yen, but weakened against ...